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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2020 | Base Metals


Technical analysis: Dip buyers testing resistance


The base metals have experienced a bout of dip buying after last week’s sell-offs. However, rebounds are already running into resistance levels which must now be overcome in order for further short-term upside progress to be achieved.

Aluminium 
Fastmarkets MB research's own forecast of global aluminium demand in 2020 is similar to Rusal's estimate, as we expect total demand to reach 66.3 million tonnes, up 2.0% from 2019's level. Our regional breakdown is for ex-China consumption to increase 1.0% to 28.7 million tonnes, while Chinese demand will rise 2.8% to 37.6 million tonnes. We still see the global market modestly oversupplied to the tune of 204,000 tonnes in 2020, but this could grow if demand takes a bigger hit from coronavirus-related disruptions.

Copper The rebound in the LME copper price in February proved to be short-lived. Despite more policy easing from China, investors were not comfortable with reasserting meaningful upside exposure to the red metal, despite its...

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