Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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February 2020 | Base Metals

Nickel: Q1 price, NPI forecasts revised

We have nudged lower our Q1 2020 nickel price forecasts again this week and have reviewed our assumptions for NPI production in China in light of virus-related logistical lockdowns likely to be choking off ore supply to smelters. But ore not converted into NPI in China in Q1 will relieve the tightness otherwise set to emerge in H2 due to the expected effect of Indonesia’s ore export ban.

Exchange prices and stocks still reflecting virus developments The LME three-month nickel price is generally consolidating after recent volatility that has been caused by the market’s reaction to the Wuhan coronavirus. Prices ended last week at $12,830 per tonne and have been trading either side of $13,000 per tonne in the last few days. At the same time, and compounding the bearish sentiment, stocks in LME-listed warehouses continue to climb, a trend we have seen in other base metals in the past week and...


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