Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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February 2020 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis

Base metal prices reacted aggressively to the coronavirus spread
The coronavirus in has been spreading rapidly in China – as of 17:44 China local time (GMT 9:44), February 3rd, total confirmed infected cases were 17,334, up 2,827 from the day prior and 362 deaths have been confirmed. Base metal prices have reacted quite aggressively to the virus spread, more so than most equity markets. Base metals' prices have fallen by an average of around 11% since the outbreak of the coronavirus became widely reported in mid-January.

While it is too early to say how the virus outbreak will unfold, we believe there are some early concerns and observations. First of all, we believe there will be a demand shock in China as the country's GDP growth will take a hit in at least the first quarter. We understand that shopping malls, restaurants, coffee shops,...

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