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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2020 | Base Metals


Aluminium: High enough for now


Aluminium prices have been working steadily higher since their October lows but a lot of the positives may already be priced in and technical resistance has been encountered. We think prices have done enough on the upside for now. Our recently revised base-case cash price forecasts remain at $1,780 per tonne for Q1 2020 and $1,808 per tonne for the full year.

Return of positive risk sentiment
Events over the past two months have generally been supportive of risk sentiment while trade tensions between the US and China continue to ease. With the phase one trade deal set to be signed on January 15, both countries have also agreed to restart semi-annual talks aimed at resolving economic disputes, a process which was previously abandoned at the start of the trade conflict.

LME aluminium stocks fell amid persistent outflows

The rebound in LME aluminium prices fits with the improved macroeconomic backdrop. In addition, the light metal’s micro-dynamics have been price-supportive too. In the week to January 10, total aluminium stocks in LME-approved warehouses...

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