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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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December 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Catch-up continue into year-end and beyond


LME tin has rebounded well since mid-November, playing catch-up with the broader base metals complex after a marked underperformance during most of 2019. We think that this catch-up phase can continue into year-end and beyond, principally because the fundamental backdrop of the refined tin market is tight and set to become tighter given the ongoing production cuts from Asia and a likely rebound in solder demand next year.

Prices playing catch-up
LME tin has outperformed its base metal peers since the start of the December, rising nearly 4% (versus +1% for the LMEX). Although LME tin has started to play catch-up, it remains the worst performing base metal of the year, down around 12% (versus -1% for the LMEX).

The recent strength in LME tin prices is driven by fresh buying, judging by the rise in open interest, which suggests stronger investor sentiment toward the metal. Given the excessively negative speculative positioning in LME tin (the z-score of the net spec length in LME tin is...

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