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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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December 2019 | Base Metals


Technical analysis: Mixed bag


Selling is dominant in lead, nickel and zinc and threatens fresh lows, while the other three base metals are showing more bullish signs.

Aluminium 

On a month-on-month basis, LME aluminium's price action was unchanged at the close of November at $1,760 per tonne. Still, there has been improvement in its technical configuration, with the higher low of $1,728 per tonne on November 19 after the light metal found support off the October low UTL. But the upside is has been capped by the declining 100 DMA (currently at $1,771 per tonne) and only a positive break above it will help to remove the cap. It is trading at $1,790 per tonne as we write on Tuesday, December 3, but the price needs to hold above the 100 DMA on a sustained two-day basis to confirm the break. The 50 DMA has provided nearby support and, in the event that further selling emerges, the October low UTL should help reduce the downside momentum. As such, we expect LME aluminium price action to trade...

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