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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Overlooked at LME Week


Tin is the worst performer on the LME so far this year, down 14%, primarily driven by acutely weak demand conditions. However, we argue that the semiconductor sector should stabilize in the months ahead due to de-escalating trade/technology frictions and refined production trends should tighten further due to the implementation of Asian refined production cuts. We therefore maintain a forecast for a solid rebound in tin prices over the next six months.

In this week’s analysis, we review the main refined output and demand trends shaping the tin market at the moment.

Refined output trends
According to the latest WBMS data, global refined tin output grew by 1.8% year on year in January-August.

The WBMS shows that Chinese refined tin output surged by 8% year on year in January-August 2019, while Indonesian refined tin production growth was zero. We do not agree with Chinese numbers. In China, we see a contraction in refined tin output (-4.6% year on year in 2019), corroborated early in September by...

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