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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2019 | Base Metals


Lead: Prices correct having become overbought


The ILZSG’s latest forecast, released last week for LME Week, helped explain lead’s recent strength, but also may explain why prices have since sold off. The ILZSG’s forecast shows a tighter than expected market in 2019, but has a shift to surplus next year. This aligns with our own view as we have also been forecasting a looser market in 2020.

5% correction after last Tuesday’s new high We warned in last week’s report that lead’s strong performance had taken it into overbought territory and that a price correction was likely. A correction duly started to unfold on Wednesday after setting a high of $2,265 per tonne on Tuesday. The price fell to a low of $2,153.50 per tonne by Friday, a drop of 4.9%. ILZSG forecast shows cross currents The latest release of the ILZSG forecast revealed that the lead market was likely to be in a 46,000-tonne deficit this year, a bullish swing...

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