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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2019 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Rebound, but limited upside


We have been making the case for some time for a short-term rebound in aluminium prices, mostly on technical grounds and fuelled by short-covering. That rebound has now materialized. However, our thesis also included the view that the rebound would be capped and constrained in the descending-triangle pattern that has dominated trading all year. That leaves little left on the upside already skews the risks to the downside.

LME price secured a 2.4% m-o-m gain as of Friday’s close...
LME aluminium closed positively on Friday November 1, up by 3.3% week on week and securing a 2.4% month-on-month gain. The market has traded above $1,800 per tonne so far this week, challenging the September highs for the first time since then.

We maintain our view that LME aluminium’s improved technical configuration has allowed it to edge higher from the solid base formed above the 2019 low of $1,705 per tonne. We also think that a great deal of the bearish...

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