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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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October 2019 | Base Metals


Technical analysis: Laggards trying to play catch-up


Aluminium, copper, tin and zinc are all (to varying degrees) working higher. Nickel, which has already had its big rally for the year, is working lower. And lead’s long rally off its May lows is showing signs of peaking.

Aluminium 

The LME three-month aluminium price is in firmer ground on Tuesday October 29, testing DTL resistance from the October 8-10 highs, which forms the top of a small, short-term symmetrical triangle within the larger, longer-term descending triangle that can be traced back to December/January. Momentum indicators appear more supportive. The stochastics have crossed higher and the RSI has strengthened, although at 50 it remains neutral overall. Further support is seen ahead of the October 3 low at $1,705 per tonne, below which support is seen toward $1,671 per tonne, where a series of lows stand between November 2016 and January 2017. Resistance is seen at $1,745 per tonne from the immediate DTL, which coincides with the June 17/August 7 double-bottom. Above this, the 100 DMA stands at $1,777, while long-term DTL resistance from the December 2018 high remains ahead of the 200 DMA at $1,819 per tonne....

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