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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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October 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Chinese industrial profits disappoint: Market Summary and Analysis


The combination of weak macroeconomics and an anticipated increase of global aluminium supply has raised traders’ expectations that more participants will purchase metal with the intention of holding and financing it for long-term gain.

Chinese industrial profits disappoint Chinese economic data was rather disappointing over the weekend. According to the country's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country's industrial profits fell for the second consecutive month, down 5.3% in September, following a 2% decline in August. Much of the decline was due to the negative effect from trade tensions and slower domestic demand. Traders bullish for aluminium premiums The combination of weak macroeconomics and an anticipated increase of global aluminium supply has raised traders’ expectations that more participants will purchase metal with the intention of holding and financing it for long-term gain. Normally, global economic slowdowns should lead to a decline in metal demand, which should translate into more stock being put on warrant on the LME. This should in turn press the cash price lower than forward prices, leading to a wider contango in the LME aluminium spread, giving more room for traders...

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