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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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October 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Rebound should pick up strength in Q4


While we acknowledge the fragile nature of the rebound in tin prices following the announcement of production cuts in China on September 5, we believe that production cuts are taking place, judging by the sustained outflows from exchange inventories. Although new mining projects are due in the medium to long term, the fundamental backdrop of the refined tin market should remain tight considering the significant increase in demand from new technologies.

Fragile rebound since September
The rebound in tin prices, which was initially triggered late in August by positive spillover effects from the rally in nickel prices then and further reinforced by the announcement of meaningful refined production cuts in China on September 5, has been undermined by investor distrust over the actual implementation of these cuts (~20,200 tonnes or 5% of global refined output). Although the LME tin price is above its 2019 low of $15,665 per tonne (established on August 27), it is below its September 5 close.

Given the relative resilience of SHFE tin prices (vs...

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