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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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September 2019 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Rally restricted by downtrend


LME aluminium prices have taken another step higher amid short-covering, and there could be plenty more of that to come given the size of the remaining net speculative short position. But this rebound has occurred within the still-dominant downtrend that has capped this market since the beginning of the year. That will again limit the upside, unless a US-China trade deal is done to complete reboot sentiment.

Positive trading environmental for aluminium and other base metals

Trading conditions for the LME base metals have generally been upbeat since the start of September as risk appetite continues to improve on reports that officials from China and the US will resume high-level trade talks early in October. China’s PBoC recently cut its reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and the ECB also cut its deposit rate to a record low of minus 0.5 percent and restarted its 2.6 trillion QE programme of bond buying. As such, the current financial backdrop attracts riskier investments and the rotation out of haven assets has pushed precious...

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