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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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August 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Prices sitting on major support


Tin prices have continued their slide, reaching a new low point since June 2016, and undermined last week by a substantial increase in LME inventories. While LME tin has performed the worst in the year to date among the rest of the base metals complex, we continue to forecast a deficit in the refined market this year, essentially owing to meaningful concentrate supply tightness. As tin prices are sitting on a major zone of support, we expect a solid appreciation from here.

Tin prices pressured by a massive LME inflow
The 3-month LME tin price tumbled to its lowest since June 2016 at $16,255 per tonne on Monday August 19, after a 1.6% sell-off last week. The resurgence of fresh shorting (reflected in the rise in open interest) was triggered by a massive net inflow of 1,580 tonnes (+33%) on August 15, the largest since December 2008.

The metal was delivered into Port Klang and Singapore, with stockpiles in the Asian region reportedly made up predominantly of Indonesian and Malaysia-origin material. Yet, this comes at odds with the latest ICDX...

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