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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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July 2019 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Technically bullish, fundamentally bearish


Healthy speculative short-covering lately and the improved technical configuration suggests there could be more upside for aluminium prices in the near term. But with seasonally slower demand, rising supply and a lower average alumina price in H2, the fundamentals are not conducive in our opinion.

Buying pressure deterred by steady dollar

The forecast-beating US non-farm payrolls reading for June of 224,000 - well above the estimated 160,000 - raised major questions about the certainty of an interest-rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The dollar index enjoyed a sizeable rally on Friday, peaking at 97.45, while the LME base metals prices came under renewed selling pressure and closed on a negative note apart from nickel. The dollar index remains firm at 97.22 at the start of this week; the buying pressure in LME aluminium looks...

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