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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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June 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Remaining cautious at the moment


Tin prices have enjoyed a solid rally since the start of June. While a renewed sell-off cannot be ruled out by the end of the month due to the presence of looseness in our real-time fundamental indicators, we believe that tin prices will experience a solid recovery in the second half of the year. The long-term fundamental picture is bullish, but it may take time for the market to metabolize the long-term tightness.

Solid rebound at the start of the month
LME tin has enjoyed a solid rebound since the start of June, outperforming remarkably the rest of the base metals complex. Although the long-term picture is tight, real-time fundamental indicators have loosened, making the rebound hard to justify from a fundamental vantage point.

In this context, we are tempted to treat the recent appreciation in prices as a bear-market rally, which should give way to renewed selling pressure later this month.

That said, we maintain our constructive view for Q3 and beyond, mainly driven by stronger fundamentals on tighter supply dynamics. While we project...

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