Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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June 2019 | Base Metals

Aluminium: Tentatively bullish

Although LME aluminium remains oversold, it is still vulnerable to further downside pressure if short-term technical support at $1,765 per tonne gives way. That said, we are tentatively bullish here because a great deal of the bearishness has already been priced in. In addition, global exchange stocks have declined by 19% this year, which is a relatively positive micro-dynamic that remains neglected in the midst of the macro-economic uncertainty.

Weak economic indicators were last week's main theme

Weak economic indicators were the main theme in global financial market last week as we saw US nonfarm payrolls up by only 75,000, compared with a forecast of 185,000 and a previous reading of 224,000. It was also the second time in four months that payrolls increased by less than 100,000 as the US labour market continues to show signs of weakening. The ADP nonfarm employment change was also disappointing – it came at 27,000 in May, compared with a forecast of 180,000 and the previous month’s reading of 271,000. ...


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