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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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May 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Resilient price unlikely to last


Although LME tin prices have proven relatively resilient in the face of the renewed escalation in the US-China trade/tech dispute, we think that refined tin market conditions are loosening amid a weaker fundamental backdrop, namely – softer demand from the solder sector and expectations of recovering supply from Indonesia. In this context, we expect LME tin prices to move lower over the next month until a recovery a takes place at the end of the quarter.

LME tin relatively resilient amid the US-China trade/tech dispute

LME tin has proven relatively more resilient than most of the other base metals in the face of the re-escalation in the US-China trade spat earlier this month. Although tin is usually less sensitive to the macro backdrop and more responsive to its fundamental dynamics, it can occasionally have a high systemic risk, as was the case in Q1. This was because the intensity of the change in macro forces (impelled by the Fed’s dovish pivot and China’s policy easing signal) was too strong compared to the relative stability in the fundamental...

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