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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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May 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Set to retest the 2018 low


In addition to weak demand conditions, the unfriendly macro backdrop stemming from renewed US-China trade tensions constitutes a further headwind for tin prices in the short term. While we remain constructive on our long-term tin outlook, we recognize that the balance of risks to tin prices is skewed to the downside in the next month or so. A retest of the 2018 low seems likely, in our view.

LME and SHFE tin price dynamics
While global tin prices have come under pressure since the start of May (LME tin:-1%, SHFE tin: -2%), it is interesting to note the significant underperformance of LME tin relative to SHFE tin last month. In April, SHFE tin was essentially flat, whereas LME tin posted a significant loss of 8%. The SHFE/LME tin ratio moved from a low of 6.85 late in March to a high of 7.59 earlier this month, back to its December 2018 level.

According to our analysis, the SHFE/LME tin ratio tends to lead the LME tin price action...

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