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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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April 2019 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Oversold


With speculative positioning remaining heavily net short, the main risk to LME aluminium prices in the near term is to the upside. And we believe that uptrend momentum is likely to continue in the near term for SHFE prices due to falling stocks in China and improving demand there. But we are still more cautious towards the price outlook over the medium to long term.

LME aluminium price was marginally higher last week
The weekly average LME aluminium price was marginally stronger last week, on the back of the positive sentiment following the fresh lifetime high in the S&P 500 Index but capped by continued strength in the US dollar index, which reached its highest level since 2017 last Thursday. The weekly average LME cash price was $1,848 per tonne last week, up 0.4% from previous week's $1,840 per tonne. However, it has slipped to $1,816 per tonne by the official session on Monday this week.

LME aluminium stocks jumped higher

LME...

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