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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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April 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

Brazil's aluminium demand growth rate may be revised to below 5% for 2019
The slowdown in the Brazilian economy is putting estimates for aluminium product consumption in the country at risk, according to the country's aluminium association ABAL. The association currently forecasts the country's aluminium apparent consumption growth at 5-7% in 2019, but this may be subject to a downward revision, as the domestic economy is not gaining momentum.

According to ABAL, the forecast of 5-7% in aluminium consumption growth was made under the assumption of a GDP growth rate at around 2.5%, but a recent survey conducted by the country's central bank showed a 1.7% projection, which means, if updated, the new aluminium consumption rate may be even lower than the bottom end of the current range, and below 5%.

Brazil's aluminum consumption up 9.5% in 2018

According to ABAL, the country's aluminium...

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