Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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April 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Price correction unfolding, as expected


Tin prices are drifting lower in line with our short-term base case forecasts, but there are many cross currents in play, which could still chase this market in either direction in Q2. Our current base case forecast for this period is $21,000 per tonne, which leaves room for the correction to run slightly deeper before prices strengthen again into mid-year and through H2.

Price correction unfolding, as expected...
While we remain bullish on the tin outlook over the longer term due to structural shortages, we have said in our tin analysis in recent weeks that we expect prices to work lower in the short term. This is because (1) demand is weak, (2) speculative length became overstretched on the long side in Q1 and is likely to normalize because (3) the worst of the Indonesian export bottleneck situation should be over after the suspension of inspector PT Surveyor Indonesia was lifted a month ago.

We were somewhat surprised at how resilient prices were last month after the PT Surveyor news, but...

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