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April 2019 | Base Metals


Market Summary: China data and trade talks key for Q2 price direction


A common theme throughout Q1 2019 was that progress on US-China trade negotiations has underpinned the recovery in base metal prices. As those talks continue to progress into Q2, we wonder how much more upside can be left in this story. If the focus switches to Chinese economic activity, base metal bulls would want to see economic indicators, which have been somewhat mixed, become more consistently positive this quarter in order for prices to continue their appreciation.

China data and trade talks key for Q2 price direction
A common theme throughout Q1 2019 was that progress on US-China trade negotiations has underpinned the recovery in base metal prices. As those talks continue to progress into Q2, we wonder how much more upside can be left in this story. If the focus switches to Chinese economic activity, base metal bulls would want to see economic indicators, which have been somewhat mixed, become more consistently positive this quarter in order for prices to continue their appreciation.

Aluminium: Short-term risks to the downside

Aluminium prices continue to range-trade, as macro developments and the market’s own fundamentals are giving mixed signals. This range-trading has been forming a potentially technically bearish rising wedge. Of all...

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