Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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April 2019 | North American Steels


Excess supply remains a barrier to future price performance: US Flat Product Highlights


Stronger price performance for domestic CR and HDG at least partly reflects lower import penetration and competition in these markets relative to HR.

US domestic HR prices underperformed our expectations during March, maintaining a level of around $690-700/ton that ultimately characterized Q1 2019. We understand HR prices are in the range of $680-710/ton, with reports of deals as low as $640/ton. Both domestic and import supplies of HR have been rising in recent months, dampening prices. In contrast, domestic CR and HDG prices performed better in March, with CR prices rising to average $831/ton in March, and gaining to $840/ton by the start of April. Similarly, domestic HDG prices rose to an average of $929/ton in March, and improved to $935/ton in early April.

Stronger price performance for domestic CR and HDG at least partly reflects lower import penetration and competition in these markets relative to HR. In 2018, US imports of HR jumped 22% year-on-year to 2.6 million tons from 2.1 million tons in 2017,...

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