Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2019 | Base Metals

Technical analysis: Mostly consolidation

From a technical perspective, base metal prices remain in consolidation mode, though nickel and potentially aluminium look best placed to break out of those holding patterns to the upside.


The LME three-month aluminium price failed to breach the declining 100 DMA again on Friday March 15 as buyers showed a lack of conviction. Sellers even ultimately gained the upper hand to push the light metal below the psychological price level of $1,900 per tonne. Still, its daily RSI and stochastic lines ended the week an upward trend, though both could be at risk lower if more selling re-emerges. As of the end of last week, the series of lower highs set since February 6 at $1,936 per tonne indicate that sellers still had that extra edge, and continued to frustrate fresh buyers. That makes the stronger showing at the start of this week all the more pivotal. Testing back into the $1,930s, aluminium needs to hold about the 100 DMA and beat the February high convincingly to put bulls back in the driving seat. That would open...


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