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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2019 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Time to play catch-up


Aluminium has been the laggard of the base metals complex this year, but we wonder whether the risks are shifting to the upside. It has some catching up to do relative to its peers. We would look more to the technical picture than aluminium’s fundamentals to trigger that correction, with fund short-covering being the driver given how this market is unique in still carrying a net speculative short position. So there is potential for upside surprises for aluminium prices in the short term.

Prices up slightly in response to macro cross-currents

The weekly average LME aluminium cash price was up slightly last week to $1,859 per tonne from the previous week's $1,853 per tonne. While the US dollar recorded its biggest weekly loss in more than three months, affected by poor US economic data, aluminium prices had been pressured by China's NBS data that showed the country's economy slowed further in the first two months of 2019; industrial production fell to 5.3% in January-February, down from 5.7% in the same period a year ago, and below the expected...

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