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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Downside risks in the short term


The rally in LME tin prices has paused since the start of March. Although the weakness is broad-based across the LME complex, we believe that tin’s consolidation is fundamentally-driven rather than macro-driven. We expect supply tightness to ease in the near term as Indonesian exports have been cleared to normalize, which should result in stronger downward pressure in tin prices in the remainder of the month. In this regard, we leave our cautious base case price forecast unchanged for Q1.

Tin hit by a negative fundamental catalyst...
Tin has come under downward pressure since the start of March (-1%) after rallying by nearly 11% in the first two months of 2019. Although tin has weakened alongside the rest of the base metals complex so far this month, we believe that its weakness in this case is fundamentally-driven rather than macro-driven, given its weak systematic risk evident by its low cross-correlation versus the broader complex.

...as the market adjusts to the end of the Indonesian export bottleneck

The negative fundamental catalyst is the end of the suspension of key smelter inspector PT...

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