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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2019 | Base Metals


Copper: Positive bias overall


The recent copper rally is being tested by weak macro data and no clear sign of tightness in the present fundamentals, especially in China. But because we expect Chinese macro data and sentiment to pick up and domestic refined copper demand to strengthen later in H1 2019, we do not believe that the current copper price weakness will get out of control; rather, we continue to approach copper prices with a positive overall.

Copper’s rally tested by weak macro dynamics
The global risk rally paused in the opening week of March. Despite growing optimism about the prospects of a US-China trade deal, investors have turned risk averse following downward revisions to EU growth forecasts by the ECB and weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data for February.

The sustainability of the broad-based improvement in macro sentiment since the start of the year is being tested by disappointing macro data among major economies. If high frequency macro data fails to catch up with upbeat sentiment, risk assets like copper are vulnerable to further weakness.

Spec length now well off the lows, but...

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