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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2019 | Base Metals


Technical analysis: Consolidating


For the most part the base metals have been showing signs of technical weakness in the past week. At the moment, we think this is part of a consolidation phase.

Aluminium 

The LME three-month aluminium price led the base metals lower with decline of 2.2% on Monday March 4. Follow-through selling has emerged ever since aluminium failed to break above the February 6 high at $1,936 per tonne and it is under great selling pressure from the declining 100 DMA ($1,926 per tonne). Technical indicators that we follow, such as the daily RSI and stochastic lines, have both reacted lower too, an indication that sellers have the upper hand for now. With the price now below the 20 and 50 DMAs, a retest of February low at $1,846 per tonne cannot be ruled out in the near future. Still, we suspect the recent weakness as a retest of support on April 2018 high DTL. If the aluminium price can build a base here and continue higher, a new upward trend could enable the light metal to enjoy strong gains....

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