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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2019 | Base Metals


Aluminium: More range-trading


While optimism for a US-China trade deal is lifting prices of most base metals, aluminium is struggling and is back below the $1,900 per tonne mark again, amid rising physical availability. The other metals are seeing availability tighten. That leaves aluminium as the laggard of the complex and funds uniquely net short this market. In theory then there is the potential for short-covering rallies, but the bullish aluminium-specific catalysts needed for this are absent at the moment. It looks like range-trading is set to continue.

Trading below $1,900 per tonne level again
There has been a mixed start to risk sentiment this week, as optimism that China and the United States are nearing a deal to end their protracted trade dispute has been partially offset by weak economic data from the US on Friday. The LME aluminium three-month price is once again trading below the $1,900 per tonne mark.

Overall fund sentiment for aluminium is still bearish

Although fund managers trading on the LME were less bearish toward aluminium in the week running to February 22, according to the latest...

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