Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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February 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Buy the dips


Tin has strengthened nearly 7% since the start of the year, outperforming the LMEX. Although tin demand is seasonally weak at this time of the year, market participants have discounted the increasing supply tightness, pushing prices higher. We expect more price volatility in the near term and a further appreciation over the course of 2019 on a deepening deficit in the refined tin market.

In this week’s analysis, we review the major positive and negative forces of the tin market that have shaped price direction so far this year and will influence the outlook for the remainder of the year.

Positives

Tin was the most resilient among the LME base metals last year – it dropped only 3% while the LMEX posted a loss of 18%. Given its relatively lower systematic risk, tin was less impacted by the negative macro sentiment stemming from the US-China trade tiff, Fed tightening and China’s policy deleveraging. The WBMS estimates that the global refined tin market was...

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