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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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February 2019 | Base Metals


Market Summary: Price gains amid holiday-thinned liquidity may not hold


Base metals continue to rally strongly. It was always our view that they had overshot on the downside in late 2018 and would recover this year, albeit more cautiously at first, we thought. So our base case forecasts erred on the bullish side, even for Q1. But as things stand now, we may not have been bullish enough and our high-case forecast scenarios may need to replace our base case scenarios. However, the rallies this week are coming amid conditions of relatively low liquidity because of the Lunar New Year holidays. It will be interesting to see what next week brings when Asian traders return to their desks.

Price gains amid holiday-thinned liquidity may not hold
Base metals continue to rally strongly. It was always our view that they had overshot on the downside in late 2018 and would recover this year, albeit more cautiously at first, we thought. So our base case forecasts erred on the bullish side, even for Q1. But as things stand now, we may not have been bullish enough and our high-case forecast scenarios may need to replace our base case scenarios. However, the rallies this week are coming amid conditions of relatively low liquidity because of the Lunar New Year holidays. It will be interesting to see what next week brings when Asian traders return to their desks.

Aluminium: In line with our forecast

LME aluminium cash prices averaged $1,846 per tonne in January as they edged away from their lows at the...

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