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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Shaken by large stock movements


Tin underperformed the rest of the base metals complex last week after a significant surge in LME inventories, tempering the market’s recent bullishness. While we think that the upside potential for tin prices in Q1 has been mostly achieved, we expect the underlying choppy rising trend to prevail, reflecting a tight fundamental backdrop amid supply tightness from Indonesia. The large swings in exchange inventories since the start of the year are, in our view, partly speculatively-driven and therefore do not reflect an accurate picture of fundamental dynamics.

Tin resilient in spite of massive stock inflow
While tin underperformed the wider base metals complex last week (LME tin: -0.1% vs LMEX: +1.3%), it proved resilient in the face of a massive increase in LME exchange inventories.

Some 1,080 tonnes were delivered into LME-listed warehouses in Singapore on Thursday, the largest gross daily inflow since November 2014. On net, LME inventories jumped 930 tonnes on Thursday and on the week, an increase of 85%, which took total LME tin stocks back above 2,000 tonnes.

This puts an end to a series of steady outflows which started...

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