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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Supply tightness set to drive prices higher


Last year was marked by a resilient performance for tin, despite a broad-based sell-off across the base metals complex. This year, we expect the macro backdrop to turn friendlier and the supply-side fundamentals of the tin market to tighten even more. In this context, we think that tin prices should perform well in 2019.

Stable start to 2019
In contrast with most of other base metals, tin has experienced a less volatile start to the year, which is primarily owing to its weaker sensitivity to systemic (macro) risks. Tin is characterized by a stronger idiosyncratic (micro) risks and, as such, its fundamentals matter relatively more than external factors (the dollar, oil, macro sentiment etc) when it comes to its pricing.

Supply tightness: a key theme for 2019
Looking at the fundamentals, supply tightness in Indonesia and China (~65% of global refined tin production) is likely to remain a major theme this year.

Indonesian tin...

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