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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2019 | Base Metals


Market Summary: Optimism to start the new year


Having traded lower for most of December, the base metals ended last year quite downbeat. But a lot of the negatives are surely priced in and, looking forward, the risks are to the upside if, as we expect, the US and China continue to work towards a trade deal, the Fed keeps talking dovishly and Chinese authorities maintain stimulus efforts. Beneath the surface the base metals’ fundamentals remain tight, so any improvement in the macro backdrop should trigger buying.

Optimism to start the new year
Having traded lower for most of December, the base metals ended last year quite downbeat. But a lot of the negatives are surely priced in and, looking forward, the risks are to the upside if, as we expect, the US and China continue to work towards a trade deal, the Fed keeps talking dovishly and Chinese authorities maintain stimulus efforts. Beneath the surface the base metals’ fundamentals remain tight, so any improvement in the macro backdrop should trigger buying.

Aluminium: China the key

We believe the main trend for aluminium prices this year should be sideways, with rally attempts sold into. While we don’t think the market will plumb the depths it did...

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