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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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December 2018 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Rebound gains might not stick


We are still positive for aluminium prices in 2019 on the back of another year of deficit. But supply disruption fears – the Rusal and Alunorte situations – that have supported prices this year are diminishing. And there will be fewer environmentally-driven smelter closures in China this winter. The market may not have fully priced in this more comfortable supply outlook.

Across-the-board rally on the US-China trade truce
Last week, the average LME aluminium cash price was $1,925.1 per tonne, slightly down from previous week’s $1,930.0 per tonne. But on Monday this week, December 3, the price increased as much as 2.5% and approached the $2,000 per tonne mark in line with the across-the-board rally among the base metals.

The complex has been boosted by positive sentiment from the agreement between the US and China to call a temporary truce in their trade dispute. High...

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