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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2018 | Base Metals


Lead: Waiting game continues


Lead has managed to hold above $1,900 per tonne and, having found support last week, there was another sharp short-covering rally to the $2,000 per tonne area, this time on news that Port Pirie will close for a month in December on environmental grounds. Once again though, lead has since pulled back. The pick-up in volatility lately could represent the market hammering out a base, which could be the precursor to a more sustained price recovery. Supply disruption news will help.

LME market still tight, but not as tight as it was in October For the most part, it has been more of the same in the lead market with prices oscillating sideways between $1,900 and $2,000 per tonne. Activity at LME warehouses is minimal, with stocks drifting lower by around 300 tonnes per day so far in November. Available LME stocks recently jumped back above 100,000 tonnes, from around 65,000 tonnes, so the market is not as stretched as it was in October. That said, total LME stocks of 111,000 tonnes do not provide much of a cushion, nor much liquidity...

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