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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2018 | Base Metals


Tin: Supply risks supporting sentiment


Tin is still the most resilient base metal in terms of price performance this year. LME tin is only down 4%, while the broad LMEX is down 14%. Tin’s resilience is attributable to two factors: its relatively low sensitivity to macro sentiment and its tight fundamentals caused by supply constraints in Asia. We expect the tin’s fundamentals to tighten further in Q4 and beyond, which should support a stronger tin price.

In this week’s analysis, we review the major positive and negative forces of the tin market that have shaped price direction so far this year and will influence the outlook for next year.

The positives

The WBMS estimates that the global refined tin market was in a deficit of 7,780 tonnes in the first eight months of 2018, following a deficit of 17,120 tonnes in 2017. In January-August 2018, global mine production expanded by 11% year on year, refined production contracted by 1.9% and refined apparent consumption decreased 0.5%. Bullish supply developments have emerged since...

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