Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2018 | Base Metals

Nickel: Our nickel view versus consensus

In this week’s nickel analysis, we compare our price forecasts with market consensus, basis the Fastmarkets Apex reports. Having been the most accurate nickel price forecaster in Q2, our accuracy slipped in Q3 as prices ultimately fell away faster than initially expected by ourselves, and by the wider market also. Prices undershot our own initial Q3 forecast and the Apex consensus. We are comfortable staying on the bullish side of consensus in 2019.

Last week, we published our quarterly consensus price forecasts report, Fastmarkets analyst price expectations (Apex), for Q3. Here we provide some takeaways on the market’s changing views on nickel from the last few Apex reports. In Q2, we were the most accurate nickel price forecaster of the 23 Apex participants. Our forecast for Q2 of $14,260 per tonne (the most bullish of all participants) was 98.5% accurate relative to a realized average price of $14,476 per tonne that quarter. That compares with the Apex weighted consensus for Q2 of just $13,574 per tonne. Aware of the tendency of nickel prices to overshoot, we were right to...


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