Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2018 | Base Metals

Lead: Building a base

Lead prices found support at $1,886 per tonne on October 31, which was above the October 11 low, but the rebound later last week to $2,026 per tonne, fuelled by hopes of some progress on US/China trade, was short lived. Prices are once again trading around the $1,950 per tonne level. A pick-up in volatility may mean a base is being hammered out, but for now prices are stuck in a sideways-to-lower trend despite the tight fundamentals that we think warrants a more buoyant price.

36,275 tonnes of cancelled warrants re-warranted over 3 days... On Friday October 26, LME lead cancelled warrants stood at 46,950 tonnes, or some 42% of total stocks. By Friday November 2, only 8% of the LME lead warrants were on cancelled status. The re-warranting means the metal stocks are now available to provide liquidity to the market. ...lessening the chance of a short-squeeze The drop in cancelled warrants, and increase in available warrants, means there is now less chance of a short squeeze on lead, as there are now 103,700 tonnes of metal in...


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