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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2018 | Base Metals


Copper: Price rebound to continue into year-end


Positives While LME copper price has rebounded notably since the start of November, it remains in deep negative territory since the start of the year. We attribute most of the year-to-date weakness to the unfriendly macroeconomic backdrop, namely gains in the dollar and ebbs and flows in risk appetite. But as macro tensions abate, and this market’s own tight fundamentals reassert themselves, we maintain that copper is likely to enjoy further strength into year-end.

In this week’s analysis, we identify some of the major positive and negative forces at play in the copper market that have shaped price direction so far this year and will influence the outlook for next year. We see positives among the negatives and maintain our bullish outlook.

Underlying supply deficit a core fundamental positive since Q1

The ICSG estimates that the global refined copper market was in a deficit (of 47,500 tonnes) in July 2018 for the fourth straight month. This deepened the cumulative deficit for January-July 2018 to 155,000 tonnes, which compares with a deficit...

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