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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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October 2018 | Base Metals


Nickel: Forecasts lowered


We have decided to revise down our Q4 2018 nickel price forecasts given the lower starting point after a weak Q3 and the range of negative factors weighing on the short-term outlook. But this is a short-term soft patch in the ongoing long-term bull story.

Short-term soft patch in long-term bull story After undershooting our expectations in Q3 to average $13,266 per tonne, LME cash nickel prices have averaged only $12,528 per tonne in the first half of October. That’s a weak start to Q4, especially in the context of our base case forecast for an average of $14,183 per tonne this quarter. So we have reviewed our price forecasts this week, considering the fundamentals, our technical analysis, macro factors and investor sentiment, including insights gained from LME Week last week. Nickel’s fundamental narrative is still bullish...

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