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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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October 2018 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Testing $2,000 per tonne


Although the aluminium market’s own fundamental dynamics are bullish, negative external forces are keeping prices fairly muted, and that in turn is helping to make the technical configuration appear somewhat fragile. There is a lingering threat that prices may break below the psychological price level at $2,000 per tonne. Fresh buying needs to emerge soon to keep prices buoyed. We have lowered our Q4 base case cash price forecast this week, but only by $50 to $2,050 per tonne.

Week in review

With LME Week behind us, general trading sentiment in the base metals complex has erred on the side of caution and has started this week sluggishly. There is lingering concern that last week’s massive stock market sell-off could still pose as a risk, with market participants mindful of the simmering trade tensions between the US and China, along with other macro and geo-political risks. The weekly average LME aluminium cash price was $2,040 per tonne last week, down 4.5% from previous week’s $2,135.5 per tonne, and trading so far this week has edged closer to the $2,000 per tonne level. ...

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