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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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October 2018 | Base Metals


Tin: Supply forecast raised slightly


While tin has been overlooked in recent London LME Weeks, perhaps this year will be different and tin will gain more attention as a result of its strong potential in the face of the EV boom. We remain constructive on our tin price outlook for Q4 2018 and 2019, expecting that the low of the year is behind us.

Slight upward pressure
The LME 3M tin price strengthened 0.7% last week to close at $18,970 per tonne as of October 5 and open interest rose by 585 lots (~2,925 tonnes) or 3%, which suggests fresh buying and brighter sentiment. This is despite an unfriendly macro backdrop (stronger dollar, higher yields, and weaker global risk-taking appetite).

Exchange inventories up

Worryingly, exchange inventories continue to rise so far this month after rebounding in September. LME stocks are up 280 tonnes or 3% in October already, but SHFE stocks have not been updated since September 28 due to national holidays. Last month, LME...

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