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September 2018 | Base Metals


Nickel: Buying opportunities


The structural deficit in the nickel market is no longer providing prices with much support, as the troubling macro backdrop has seen battery bulls stopped out. The current technical configuration points lower in the short term, but the fundamental picture points higher in the longer term. That means this sell-off is a buying opportunity.

Q3 base case replaced with low case... Nickel prices have continued to slip lower within a down-trending channel that looks capable of extending further for a while. Macroeconomic uncertainties have unnerved nickel bulls and we think that some of the speculative length built into prices on the back of the battery story has been stopped out. As a result of the recent weakness, we have revised our nickel price forecast this week, including replacing our Q3 2018 base case forecast of $14,400 per tonne with our previous low case scenario of $13,500 per tonne. ...but this may still prove to be too high However, we admit that this still looks a little on the high side given the current trading level of the mid-to-low $12,000s and our technical analysis pointing...

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