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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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September 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Al prices down 3.1% on the trade tensions: Market Summary and Analysis


Although prices have been hit by the escalating trade tensions, we believe supply uncertainties will prevent aluminium prices from experiencing any plunge.

Al prices down 3.1% on the trade tensions Stronger-than-forecast Chinese trade data released over the weekend, together with positive inflation figures, suggests the economy has shrugged off rising trade uncertainties so far. However, tensions appear set to escalate further after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on a further $267 billion of Chinese goods, atop the $200 billion imports already in consideration. While this is keeping a cap on the upside for prices, the downside is protected by continuing supply-side uncertainties. Supply uncertainties continue Although prices have been hit by the escalating trade tensions, we believe supply uncertainties will prevent aluminium prices from experiencing any plunge. According to our estimate, more than half of global alumina refinery capacity is either currently suffering disruptions or at risk of disruptions or limitations before the end of the year. Alcoa workers in Western Australia rejected a revised pay offer last week...

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