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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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July 2018 | Base Metals


Copper: Prices suffered series damage


Copper price have suffered series damage as the market has been caught off guard by how aggressive President Trump is being over trade protectionism. Given the scale of price pressure since early June we have cut our Q3 price forecast, and broad-based uncertainties relating to trade are likely to overhang in the short term. But various metrics suggest the global refined market is starting to tighten, something that could accelerate with supply disruption potentially back on the agenda once again at Escondida.

Copper slumps to its lowest in almost a year
Selling pressure continued to dominate across the base metals sphere last week. Initial attempts to rally stalled around $6,400 per tonne triggering renewed selling pressure, which sent the three-month benchmark to $6,081 per tonne on Wednesday July 11, the lowest since July 25, 2017.

Trade disputes set to dominate

Headline trade data from China will do little to ease protectionist policies from the US. China reported a trade surplus of $41.6 billion in June, hugely surpassing the $27.2 billion forecast. Exports increased by a stronger-than-forecast 11.3% year on year, while imports rose by 14.1%, compared with the 26% rise in May, according to data released from...

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