Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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June 2018 | Base Metals

Technical analysis: Consolidation

Consolidation is dominating the base metals at the moment and this activity is taking place within uptrends. Overall, the upside continues to look favoured in the short term.

The rebound in LME aluminium since the May-23 low at $2,239 per tonne has found a ceiling at the June-7 high of $2,353 per tonne. There is nearby support from the 20 DMA ($2,292 per tonne), which coincidentally sits above the UTL from the April-24 low. That said, a successful close below the UTL could allow more selling to emerge, we feel. Aluminium’s technical indicators are far from positive too, with the daily RSI meandering just above the median line, while the stochastic fast line has failed to edge back above the slow line. Based on the current technical backdrop, we envisage LME aluminium price to consolidate above $2,300 per tonne in the very short term.



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