Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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May 2018 | Base Metals


Nickel: Right to be bullish


We made a brave call earlier this quarter, revising up our Q2 base case nickel price forecast to $14,260 per tonne. That compares with an MB’s Apex weighted consensus forecast of $13,574 per tonne. But with the quarter-to-date cash price averaging $14,019 per tonne already, and rising daily, going bullish certainly seems like the right call. If the current rally is maintained, even our high-case scenario for this quarter ($15,000 per tonne) will quickly move within reach.

Right to be bullish We made a brave call earlier this quarter, revising up our Q2 base case price forecast to $14,260 per tonne. This made us the most bullish forecaster in MB’s Apex survey, and compares with a weighted consensus forecast of $13,574 per tonne for the current quarter. With the quarter-to-date cash price averaging $14,019 per tonne already, and rising daily, going bullish certainly seems like the right call. If the current rally is maintained, even our high-case scenario for this quarter ($15,000 per tonne) will quickly move within reach. But speculative length is elevated, the latest wave of bullish EV sentiment triggered by LME Week Asia is probably priced in now, and nickel’s uptrend this year has been characteristically jagged. So...

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