Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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May 2018 | Base Metals

Technical analysis: Nickel and lead leading the way at the moment

Technically, aluminium, tin and zinc are vulnerable to further weakness in the short term. Nickel, lead and copper, it that order, have been looking strongest recently and are most likely to push higher.

Last week our headline was that aluminium prices were “Working towards $2,400 per tonne.” That attempt failed and prices are consolidation $100 lower. The 20 DMA has provided resistance, currently at $2,326 per tonne. Prices appear vulnerable to further pressure having broken the UTL formed from the April 24 low, with recent price action looking increasingly like a bearish flag formation. Momentum indicators have weakened; the stochastics have crossed lower, while the RSI at 50 is neutral. Further resistance is seen at $2,347 per tonne, marking the 50% Fibo of the April 5-19 rally, ahead of the March 2012 high at $2,361 per tonne. Support is around $2,200 per tonne, with the 100 and 200 DMAs below that.



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